Serials by Kellogg

U.S. stocks started the year with a slow grinding rise to a July high of 1420 (S&P 500 Index) followed by a respectable plunge to an October low of 1233 then into a head snapping rebound back to new highs within 21 trading days. Since the October low was just 0.3% above 1998's close, you could say that the market wasted your time for most of the year.

Although the markets have followed a fairly typical pattern, the November rebound and many individual stocks showed just how emotional the market is and how disconnected it is from the underlying economic conditions it's supposed to reflect. Historically, December should be a strong month but this time we get to add a pseudo-millennium change and Y2K emotional baggage on top of an near record time between recessions. How long can Golddie Locks keep ahead of the bears is hard to say.

Now the ever-excitable TV commentators on a multitude of financial help shows seem determined to make us celebrate each DOW millennia as if it were some rite of passage. With great fanfare they usher in each new season of record highs. Their warnings are clear: if your stocks didn’t bloom early this season then you may be left behind, left out of the fun. But perhaps you are like us at IFM in anticipating something better, something more lasting than spring flowers.

The S&P is once again stretching for new highs but overall should stay within a range of 1332 to 1453 for 1999 with an even chance of being a double digit year. Next year should see a slow down from the market's 3 year 20s something gains to something closer to 10% with an upside target of 1500 to 1550.