Serials From Kellogg

Watch the pictures if you must but turn off the sound for the hot air will begin to rise just as high as the pall of smoke that marked the passing of innocent lives from "these cowardly acts". It should be enough that our President has launched the full resources of the United States to "hunt down and punish those responsible…" There are, however, lesser cowards afoot.

In this amazing age of information becoming authoritatively ill-informed is an art form and bigger business than that that was lost in today's tragedy. There are those so desperate to fill up a 24/7 news channel that they will flail about from conjecture to hyperbole, all in an effort to define what they themselves do not understand. Their zeal is matched only by those quick to champion their own bile in the guise of thoughtful "commentary"--or just to be profound.

As I write, I am authoritatively informed-live from Kabul-that we are attacking an airport or Ben Ladin or something. On another channel, some British lady tells me, authoritatively, that Bush showed a complete lack of leadership. I also read on the Singapore Straights Times' Web site that there was utter panic in the streets of New York City. So much for foreign coverage.

Predictably, Matt Drudge claimed to know who did it but others, less predictably, started calling for investor panic, lest their own voices not be heard. For example, the American Association of Individual Investors Web site thoughtfully, or was it authoritatively, told me that "The terror attacks … may push the teetering economy into recession ..." So much for authority.

Drivel, tommyrot or whatever you want to call this misinformation in an information age.

After watching a plane fly directly into one of the World Trade Center towers (live, as it happened) and after listening to interviews of survivors from the 92nd floor, what I saw, contrary to the Straights Times, was the self-sacrifice of many hundreds of strangers in a city of strangers. Even our government calmly did what it said it would do under such circumstances, which was probably one of the few promises it actually kept except to tax us.

First off, Wall Street was not destroyed. Second, Wall Street does not build anything except egos and bank accounts-as many as it breaks. It's a market of ownership shares; it is not main street. Third, every one of the Wall Street-related companies in the World Trade Center had to have a TESTED disaster plan in place BY LAW. In fact, I was on Morgan Stanley's Web site while watching their offices literally drop to the street.

Although U.S. and London markets were closed for obvious security precautions (even our own building was evacuated), we were still able to watch a modestly delayed view of the futures market via Bloomberg's public access Web site and to gain clear evidence that the markets, which started off on a positive tack, were beginning to calm down after their initial panic reaction.

World economic growth was only expected to slow down to 2.7% this year and had already shown signs of recovering to an expected growth of over 3.6% next year, according to the IMF. Even Japan, clearly in recession, was recovering. The pessimistic National Association of Business Economics predicted no worse than 1.6% GROWTH for this year and 2.7% for next. Our own Fed has had similar comments. This was not a teetering economic situation.

The loss of the COMEX will disrupt the efficiency of commodity trading. Brent Crude probably got bid up because it was one of the few places still open for those needing to put risk money to work. No surprise also that bonds were bid up--where else do you park timid money.

Equally predictable, and reasonable, European tourism stocks and a few insurance companies, who happily re-insured U.S. assets, suffered 10% instant market losses. But I am also confident you will be told all these things are a sign of panic, for that sells better than sex.

How the markets open is probably irrelevant given the complexities of world capital flows. It could be up but down 5% to 10% is also possible. My best guess, this evening, is that cooler heads will prevail soon enough, since the S&P 500 was already poised to turn around at 1093.

There are always ripples and some can become short-lived tsunami but what follows will depend on how well we ignore those other cowards as we help New Yorkers clean up. Did I say help New Yorkers? Yes, they deserve no less.

We are now at war. Wars always bring out the best and worst in people and someone will always act as a profiteer. My sister-in-law told of people paying $5 for gas in Little Rock, Arkansas, while at the same time, I bought $1.43 gas from an automated pump (that was working just fine) in a rural community called Whites Creek. So much for taking out our economy.

Once the ripples and dust from this horrific event settle down we are likely to find that it marked an end of the weak forces who have been driving our markets down for whatever reason. Americans have rallied before when pushed too hard and the real people who make up this economy are no more frail then those who freely rushed into harm's way, this day, to help others.

Whether this is a defining moment or not only time will tell. It could focus our energies on rebuilding a uniquely American free economy that has of late been obscured by government and media confusion over who we are and who owns a free society. Today, we are all New Yorkers and no longer a hyphenated this or that.

Always vigil, always loyal.

To be continued...